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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13660/-1
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-14T22:25Z
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2018-02-12 07:21 
 - Time at C2: 2018-02-12 01:25 
 - Radial speed: 554.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 49 deg
 - Eruption location: S07W22
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 572.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2018-02-14 22:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.00 hours)

Lead Time: 62.72 hour(s)
Difference: 9.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2018-02-12T16:55Z

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